The swine flu scare scenarios from experts!
The world's largest swine flu epidemic to spread fear continues, while the experts about the disease outbreak scenario is developing. Experts within 2 years of 1 billion people are predicting will be caught up in the swine flu. That swine flu scenarios:Harvard University Dr.. Marc Lipsitch "the most common diseases in the months of January or February will be reached. Seasonal flu each year in the same period becomes widespread. As the weather cools down the spread of influenza virus is also accelerated, "he said. Greater risk of January saying that the opinions are from Turkey. Hacettepe University, Department of Public Health faculty member Prof. Dr. Levent Akin, "The total number of severe cases may be increased. A flu spread very quickly in very cold months tend to show, the increase in the number of severe cases can be seen. January may be the beginning of the epidemic threat, "he said. According to the Reuters news agency that the swine flu epidemic, scientists probability for 2 offers:
Severe epidemic: every 30-40 years according to scientists, a new influenza virus emerged as a rapidly spreads to the whole world and hundreds of thousands of people can lead to death. In 1918, the last as the worst example of this has happened. The Spanish flu virus spread in waves of about 50 million people in 18 months has led ölümüna. But today no need to worry about such a large outbreak. Antibiotics and artificial respiration was not used because in 1918 the epidemic was not yet the device. Vaccines as well as widespread as had not sufficiently developed and not used. Could lead to a simple infection to death. In spite of everything scientists 40 percent of the labor force in 1918-like pandemic situation could be lost is calculated. In this case, the production can come to a standstill, and in many countries around the world can stop trading economy may collapse completely.
Mild epidemic: This is the latest example occurred in 1968. Approximately 1 million people to the virus H3N1 caused the death. Vaccination, although drugs each year up to 250 and 500 thousand people are dying already because of the flu. In the event of a mild epidemic among the highest risk group of infants and small children, the elderly and more vulnerable patients against the flu can include. Infections, can adversely affect world trade and movement. Manufacturing slows, drug and vaccine shortages livable. Would be insufficient capacity of the hospital.
Here are the scenarios:
1-Violence epidemic
The best scenario is lightweight and ordinary flu epidemics, as in the season between 250 and 500 thousand people to the cause of death.
The worst scenario: the virus mutating to become resistant to drugs and vaccines. vitamin D deficiency that people take to strengthen in the months of January and February. Than 1 billion people infected worldwide, and millions of people will die.
Possible scenario: The virus can be transmitted to people the world over 1 billion. Death rates can not be calculated exactly. But the future of 1 million people lost their lives in the winter 2 possible.
2-The reliability of vaccine
The best scenario: Vaccine, in fact, such as pharmaceutical companies argue that without harming nobody protects people from swine influenza.
The worst scenario is more dangerous from the swine flu vaccine. In contrast, thousands of people, protection from disease can lead to death.
Possible scenario: The vaccine was not enough time for testing. First, the vaccine within 48 hours after the deaths that occur will be discussed. But in the long term health effects of the vaccine is only understood years later.
3-Security in Schools
The best scenario: a small number of cases found in schools is, the mask is brought obligation. Infections are mild and the death rate is low.
The worst scenario: the disease is transmitted to millions of children and leads to many deaths. 2009/2010 academic year are given to the search.
Possible scenario: while a few schools closed temporarily due to the flu epidemic. Many students will be more than the cause of influenza vaccination will be damaged.
4-Community Impact
The best scenario: A small number of sick people, good Once you've returned to work so that the energy, water, security, food supplies and other needs not met problem.
The worst scenario: the number of patients increased, the problems begin to emerge. Population is dwindling because of disease and hunger.
Possible scenario: at the beginning of 2010 increased diseases and problems may occur with temporary difficulties. However, they are not disruptive.
5-Health services
The best scenario: the infection is reduced and the capacity of the hospital is able to meet them. The effects of drugs and vaccines is planned.
The worst scenario: Hospitals can not cope with the increasing number of patients. The mutant virus becomes more resistant.
Possible scenario: The Swine influenza patients to hospitals have been captured in the raid can be increased gradually as the difficulties. Health professionals may be caught up in the swine flu. Patients are advised not to leave the house.
Measures are not taken for the virus;
- The number of people infected are expected to be 21 million.
- 8 million of them will be admitted to the hospital.
- 96 thousand will be admitted to hospital.
- 15 thousand 500 of them will be taken into intensive care.
- As a result, 5 thousand 300 people lost their lives possible.
If the measures taken;
- Infection with a limited number will be 1.8 million.
- 750 thousand people will be admitted to the hospital.
- 7 thousand 500 of them to be hospitalized.
- 1200 will be kept in intensive care.
- 400 deaths livable.
